2009/01/25

5th International Housing Affordability Survey Released

5th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey
265 Markets in 6 Nations

Dr. Shlomo Angel, of Princeton University and New York University, one of the world's leading experts in urban planning writes in the preface to this 5th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey that ...the current efforts to contain the pace of the outward expansion of cities for one reason or another are, at the very least, open to serious question. Referring to land use regulation, he continues: The more stringent the restrictions, the less is the housing market able to respond to increased demand, and the more likely house prices are to increase. And when residential land is very difficult to come by, housing becomes unaffordable., This report describes the economic connection between that "smart growth"/"urban consoldiation" policies (prescriptive land use policies) and the unprecedented house price escalation that has occured in recent years in some markets. Moreover, the consequences have expanded well beyond housing. Without prescriptive land use regulation, the housing bubble in the United States would have been less severe; without a severe housing bubble, the US mortgage meltdown would not have occurred and without the US mortgage meltdown, the international financial crisis might not have occurred. It will be important to reform land use policies to prevent similar damage from occuring in the future

Report:
http://www.demographia.com/dhi.pdf

INITIAL MONDAY PRESS COVERAGE FROM “DOWN UNDER” NEWSPAPERS

SYDNEY
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/housing-severely-unaffordable/2009/01/25/1232818248039.html
PERTH
http://www.watoday.com.au/national/housing-prices-its-all-relative-20090125-7pgu.html
MELBOURNE
http://www.theage.com.au/national/housing-prices-its-all-relative-20090125-7pgu.html
AUCKLAND
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/article.cfm?c_id=8&objectid=10553540



Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

2009/01/11

Las Vegas: Smart Growth & Feds Destroy Housing Affordability

The Las Vegas metropolitan area is sometimes erroneously characterized as having a responsive (traditional or liberal) land use market. In fact, the Las Vegas market is highly prescriptive, as a result of the combination of strong land use regulations (“smart growth”) and the large share of developable fringe land by the US federal government, which has been restricting sales to maximize revenues.

Federal Government Drives Up Housing Prices: Doug French, a bank executive writing for the Nevada Policy Research Institute noted that the federal government’s failure to sell land for residential development at a rapid enough pace had led to substantial increases in house prices in the Las Vegas area (the fastest growing metropolitan area in the United States with more than 1,000,000 population). As a result, builders and developers had bid up the land price in period auctions to ensure their supply of land for construction --- a practice called “land banking” (it is also a form of speculation).

The federal government owns 90 percent of the land in Clark County, which contains the entire Las Vegas urban area and private land for development has been in short supply for some time. According to French, the price of land for housing generally sold for $40,000 to $50,000 per acre in the late 1990s. By the time French was writing (2000), the price at auction had risen to $250,000. Over the past two years, the average price has been $563,000. Rising land prices are the principal element of house price escalation in the Las Vegas area.

From his 2002 vantage point, Feds Drive Up Nevada Home Prices, French noted that the median house price in Las Vegas was $124,000 in 1995 and had risen to $187,000. He noted that if this rate continued, the median house price would be more than $280,000 by the end of the decade. He was far too conservative. By the end of 2006, the median house price had reached nearly $320,000.

The federal government has been auctioning land at a rate well below what the market could accommodate. This is illustrated by the large increase in prices per acre and in a comparison with agricultural land values.

Agricultural land in the Las Vegas metropolitan area had a value per acre of approximately $3,000 according to the 2007 United States Census of Agriculture. At the 2008 federal government auction prices, “raw” land was being sold at more than 175 times the value of agricultural land per acre.

There is no shortage of developable land in the Las Vegas area. Within 40 miles of the city center, there is enough rural flat land to accommodate a population of more than 10,000,000 at Los Angeles urban area densities.

If land had been freely available for development, purchasers would not have paid such high prices for the land sold by the federal government.

Excessive Regulation in Boulder City: The problem is more than insufficient federal sales. Boulder City, at the southern end of the urban area, has a strong growth management act. Moreover, the city is effectively prohibiting development in more than 150 square miles of open desert land, some of which would be appropriate for developing new housing. Given Boulder City’s unique position, south of a pass between Henderson and Boulder City, the desert preserve represents the equivalent of an urban growth boundary to the south of the urban area.

Brookings Institution Land Use Planning Rating: In addition, the Las Vegas metropolitan area is rated as “containment lite” by the Brookings Institution in From Traditional to Reformed: A Review of the Land Use Regulations in the Nation’s 50 largest Metropolitan Areas. This is further indication that the metropolitan area has converted from responsive (traditional or liberal) land use regulation to prescriptive land use regulation.

Prescriptive Land Use Regulation and Price Volatility: Not only does prescriptive land use regulation artificially increase house prices, but it also makes prices more volatile. Prescriptive land use regulation brings more chaotic “boom and bust” cycles to housing markets. They convert what would have otherwise been modest price bubbles into extreme price bubbles. This is noted by Glaeser and Gyourko, who summarize the findings of a number of studies:

Recent research also indicates that house prices are more volatile, not just higher, in tightly regulated markets.

…price bubbles are more likely to form in tightly regulated places, because the inelastic supply conditions that are created in part from strict local land-use regulation are an important factor in supporting ever larger price increases whenever demand is increasing.



The mortgage meltdown has hit the Las Vegas area about as hard as any in the country, and median house prices have since reached $185,000, a decline of more than 40 percent. But, given the insufficient land sales rate and the excessive exurban land preservation provisions, house prices in the Las Vegas metropolitan area are again escalate well beyond historic norms once the economy recovers.

Las Vegas provides an example of how land rationing, from both “smart growth” policies and insufficient government land sales can lead to far higher house prices and reduced housing affordability.

http://www.demographia.com.db-lvland.pdf

2009.02.09

2009/01/10

Australia & USA Have Largest Houses

According to national reporting agencies, the average new house constructed in Australia or the United States is approximately 2,200 square feet (over 200 square meters), including both detached houses and multiple units. New house sizes are nearly as large in New Zealand (1,900 square feet or 175 square meters), while new detached houses average 1,900 square feet (175 square meters) in Canada. However, new average house sizes are less than one-half that size in United Kingdom, (815 square feet or 76 square meters). This is only 15 percent larger than the hundreds of thousands of standardized flats built in tower blocks before 1990 by the East German government (700 square feet or 65 square meters). Irish new house sizes are, like their UK counterparts, also comparatively small, at 945 square feet (88 square meters). Moreover, new UK houses are the smallest in the former EU-15, while new Irish houses rank ninth out of 15 (Figure 7).

New house sizes have dropped more than 30 percent in the United Kingdom since 1920. Ireland’s smallish houses are built at the same time that the nation emerges as the most affluent in the European Union excepting Luxembourg. At the same time, houses in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United States have continued to increase in size. Meanwhile, over the last 20 years, the average new detached house in Australia and New Zealand has increased by an amount to the average total size of a house in United Kingdom.

There appears to be a general unawareness of these differences, at least in the United Kingdom. For example, Richard (Lord) Rogers, who chaired the UK Government Urban Task Force has written:

    The British are extravagant with land. We insist on building as if we lived in the American Midwest or the Australian outback. The US builds on average 40 dwellings for every hectare … in Britain, we erect 23 new buildings for every hectare ...

In fact, average house lots are much larger in the United States (and Australia, Canada and New Zealand) than in the United Kingdom. In the United States, new detached houses are built at 2.7 per acre (6.6 per hectare). In Australia, new detached houses are being built at 5.5 per acre (13.3 per hectare). By comparison, in the United Kingdom, new houses were built at an average of 16 per acre (40 per hectare) in 2005. Future lot sizes are likely to be even smaller in Dublin, where present zoning calls for 20 houses per acre (49 per hectare) an increase of 35 percent in just four years. Seven Dublin houses or six United Kingdom houses could be built on the average new house lot in Australia.

Indicating a similar misunderstanding, the Times of London wrote that an objective of an Essex County plan was:

    …to persuade builders to provide big family apartments on the continental model, rather than large numbers of small detached houses.

In fact, much of recently built housing stock in many continental (Western Europe) markets is detached. For example, single family houses comprise two-thirds of new house construction in France. The United Kingdom has some of the most tightly packed suburbs in the high-income world, nearly double that of Western Europe and one-half greater than in Japan.

Value for Money: New houses, adjusted for size differences, are more than twice as costly relative to incomes in Ireland and the United Kingdom compared to Australia and New Zealand. New houses in Ireland and the UK are four to five times as costly compared to affordable markets such as Indianapolis and Winnipeg (Figure 8).

Suzhou: All of China in One Place

Full Article + 444 Photos


INTRODUCTION

If you only have time to visit one place in China, it should be Suzhou (pronunciation: SOO JOE). Suzhou provides a sampling of virtually all that China has to offer. Suzhou is Old China, from its temples, pagodas and canals to its tastefully designed and attractive gardens. Suzhou is also modern China, ringed by light industrial and commercial development. Suzhou also has elements of Italy, with canals like Venice and a leaning tower like Pisa (Yunyan Pagoda). Like other large urban areas in China, there are expanses of massive multiple building high-rise condominium development as well as lower rise townhouse developments and detached housing (called “villas” in China). Finally, Suzhou has a freeway and road system which is more comprehensive than most in North America.

GETTING TO SUZHOU

There is another reason to visit Suzhou --- it is conveniently located close to Shanghai, so a Suzhou is only a quick train, bus or taxi ride away from China’s principal urban area. Suzhou is on the new high speed rail line (CRH) from Shanghai to Nanjing. Air service is by the Shanghai airports.

LOCATION

Suzhou is located 45 miles (70 kilometers) west of Shanghai’s Hongqiao International Airport and 50 miles (80 kilometers) west of Puxi, Shanghai’s commercial core. It is another 20 miles (32 kilometers) to Pudong International Airport, which serves most international flights. Suzhou is in Jiangsu province, which, along with the provincial level municipality of Shanghai, occupies the south bank of the Yangtze River Delta. Suzhou city (the regional government) is bounded on the south by the Huzhou city (regional government) in Zhejiang, on the east by the provincial level city of Shanghai and to the west by Taihu and Wuxi city or regional government (Slide 2).

GENERAL DESCRIPTION

Suzhou sits at the gateway to China’s lake country. There are a number of lakes within the urban area. The west side of the urban area reaches into Taihu (Tai Lake), China’s third largest natural lake, at 900 square miles (2,250 square kilometers).

The topography is generally flat, however there are some hills in the urban area, including Tiger Hill, on which Yunyan Pagoda stands. The urban area extends to three islands in Taihu.

The Suzhou urban area now has 2.6 million people and is expected to increase to 3.2 million by 2025. The urban area covers 245 square miles (635 square kilometers) and a population density of 10,600 per square mile (4,100 per square kilometer). Suzhou is one of the least dense urban areas in China, principally because core densities are lower than elsewhere. The most dense core district (qu) reaches less than 50,000 per square mile (20,000 per square kilometer), well below Shenyang’s 80,000 (30,000) and Shanghai’s more than 100,000 (40,000).

However, as is the case in virtually all of the urban areas in China, the pattern of density is very uneven. Population densities are very high in the core or old city and fall off precipitously in the peripheral areas.

THE GRAND CANAL

The most unique feature of Suzhou is its canals. The most famous is the Grand Canal, or the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal, which is more than 1,100 miles (1,700 kilometers) long. The canal was started more than 2,500 years ago and completed 1,500 years ago. It is the longest canal in the world.
The Grand Canal courses through Suzhou. It carries considerable commercial traffic (Slides 3-24).


THE URBAN FORM

The Old City: The core, or old city of Suzhou covers approximately six square miles (15 square kilometers) and is surrounded by a broad canal, which forms a rectangle (called the Peripheral Canal in this Rental Car Tour). Parts of this “ring” canal have parks and well manicured green spaces on the old city side. This is particularly evident in the southwest section of the Peripheral Canal (Slides 419-444).

Boat cruises are available from the western side of the canal. The boat route goes to the north and continues into smaller canals further north toward Tiger Hill and the Yunyan Pagoda (Slides 25-104). The cruises provide a view of Yunyan Pagoda at their northern terminus. However, the terminus is well south of the pagoda. The rest of the canal toward Tiger Hill is closed to tourist traffic.

There are a number of additional canals within the old city. Many of these canals are also closed to tourist traffic. It would seem that Suzhou could increase tourist traffic by taking the necessary steps to open more of the canal system and making it possible to travel around the area by canal. Suzhou would appear to have greater potential as a tourist destination than it is now experiencing.

The old central business district is located in the middle of the old city (Slides 127-166). The central business district contains major shopping areas, but does not have much in the way of high rise commercial buildings. The population density of the core area appears to be somewhat lower than usual for the such an area in a Chinese urban area. In the older areas, the mid-rise multi-unit developments so typical in China appear to be up to five stories instead of six to nine. Like many Chinese core areas, the old Suzhou has many tree lined streets.

The old city is home to the Humble Administrator’s Garden (Slides 167-186).

The Emerging Western Center: Approximately three miles (five kilometers) the west of the old city a newer, bustling commercial core is emerging. This area contains a number of shopping centers and the tallest buildings in the urban area. As is the case with Chinese urban areas, the large commercial buildings are somewhat dispersed, rather than being concentrated as would be the case in North American or Australian urban areas. The Grand Canal divides this core, running north and south within walking distance of some of the largest buildings in the urban area (Slides 4-16). Just to the east of the Grand Canal is Suzhou Henghe Plaza, which is 48 floors and 600 feet high or 180 meters high (Slides 11, 120) . Suzhou’s tallest building, the Suzhou Xindi Center is located just to the west of the Grand Canal. The Suzhou Xindi Center is 54 floors, 761 feet and 232 meters high (Slides 203 & 205).

The Eastern Sector: To the east, there is a large number of new and under construction luxury condominium developments. These are both high-rise and mid-rise residential developments. There are also shopping centers.

Western Industrial Area: The western industrial area is to the west of the western core. This area has a grid of wide streets, which are up to eight lanes in width. The generally light industrial buildings are low rise, as would be expected in a similar area in Europe or North America. In addition, the area also includes some large luxury condominium developments.

Southwest: The southwest includes two older suburbs that have been engulfed by the expanding Suzhou urban area, Xiukou and Mu Du. These areas have older housing, much of it multi-unit and commercial districts. This area also includes much of the older industrial base of the urban area. There is a new area of more sparse development between these suburbs and the mainland shore, which includes commercial areas, hotels and housing, both multi-unit and detached.

Taihu (Tai Lake): The Suzhou urban area continues into Taihu, over a causeway that connects three islands to the mainland. The first island, Changsha, is nearly fully developed with detached housing. The second island, which is the smallest, is covered on its eastern half by detached housing and undeveloped in its western half. The third island, which is the largest, includes at least one older village that has been engulfed by the urbanization of Suzhou and contains commercial areas, some multi-family housing and considerable detached housing. Most of this island is rural.

Southern Sector: The southern sector, located to the south of the old city’s southern canal appears to be an older extension of the urban area. There is a variety of principally multi-unit housing, both mid-rise and high rise. Some of the developments are somewhat older, while others are new or still under construction. The Grand Canal crosses the southern sector (Slides 17-24)

Northern Sector: Tiger Hill and Yunyan Pagoda are located in an attractive park in the northern sector (Slides 70-85). Like the leaning tower of Pisa, Yunyan Pagoda leans, but not as far. Good views of the urban area can be seen from the top of Tiger Hill. Tiger Hill can be climbed from both the south and the north sides, though the climb from the south side is more gentle and more interesting. Like the rest of Suzhou, Tiger Hill and the northern sector also have their share of canals. The rest of the northern sector has residential buildings, principally multi-unit buildings, with some new high-rises. There are also older light industrial activities (Slides 251-269).

Small Businesses: As is the case in virtually all Chinese urban areas, many major streets are lined by small businesses (Slides 212 & 220)

HOUSING

Generally, older residential housing is lower rise in Suzhou than in other major Chinese urban areas. There are fewer of the old standard design apartment/condominium buildings that are found throughout Chinese urban areas (Slides 136 & 156).

As in other Chinese urban areas, there are many outdoor advertising signs for new luxury condominiums, town houses and detached housing (Slides 225, 289, 295, 306, 320 & 352)

TRANSPORT

Suzhou is well served by high-quality roads. There is a freeway ring road (Slide 315) and freeway connections to the west, east and south. In addition, there are various freeways within the urban area itself. Suzhou is well served by freeways, with nearly 100 route miles (160 route kilometers). At nearly 0.4 route miles per square mile (0.25 route kilometers per square kilometer), Suzhou has a higher freeway density than any major urban area in the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand other than Montreal and San Antonio.

Similarly, virtually all of Suzhou is served by a grid of wide arterial streets, as is typical of Chinese urban areas (Slide 230).

Most urban transport in Suzhou is by bus. A metro line is under construction, which will extend from near the eastern periphery of the urban area, through the old city core, the newer western center and continue well out into the western

THE YANGTZE DELTA

Suzhou is one of the principal urban areas on the Yangtze River Delta, which includes Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Ningbo and a number of smaller urban areas. This is one of China’s two “mega-regions,” --- areas of large adjacent metropolitan areas. The other is the Pearl River Delta, with a somewhat smaller population but much higher population density (see Rental Car Tour: Pearl River Delta Overflight).

QUALITY OF HOUSING

China has been successful in housing its large urban population, which includes the registered population --- people with the right to live in a particular urban area --- and the unregistered, or floating population. The unregistered population is legally permitted to live in the urban area only temporarily, but the reality is that they have become a permanent fixture, staffing the many growing businesses. In all of our travels in China, which now cover more than 15 urban areas, we have seen no “shanty towns” or informal housing. This is unusual for a nation of China’s economic status. Nations that are rated as much more affluent, such as Mexico and Brazil have significant shanty towns, which cannot be missed in traveling through the urban areas. Moreover, China has every bit as big an urban housing challenge, since the strong movement of people from the rural areas to the urban areas continues. China will add more urban residents in the next quarter century than the population of the United States (more than 360 million).

EATING IN CHINA

The local food is superb. My rule in China is to never frequent a restaurant that takes credit cards. That way, there is a good chance of getting genuine local food. The experience is a happy one, though language difficulties make it virtually impossible to enunciate any recommendations. There are, along all business streets in the urban areas of China, a plethora of good local restaurants. Ordering can be difficult, since few such establishments have menus in English (though rather more than have Mandarin menus in Western Europe or the United States). Moreover, given the humble status of these restaurants --- low prices, good food, they will not be found in any of the tour guides.

It is recommended, however, that tap water be avoided. The hotels provide bottled water. Generally, bottled water should be relied on in all but the most affluent nations. This is my unfortunate advice after having contracted Montezuma’s revenge on every continent but Australia and Antarctica.

TRAVELING IN CHINA

China has one of the world’s most advanced air transport systems and has built many new airports. The new Beijing Terminal 3 and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport are among the most impressive in the world. Other large and medium sized urban areas also have new airport terminals, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi’an, Shenyang, Shenzhen, Taiyuan and a new terminal is under construction at Hongqiao International Airport in Shanghai.

Passenger rail is a very inexpensive and comfortable way to travel, especially over shorter distances. China has developed the fastest intercity train in the world, which operates between Tianjin and Beijing. It reaches nearly 220 miles per hour (350 kilometers per hour). Rail travel is very inexpensive. For example, second class travel between Hangzhou and Shanghai has an approximately cost of $15.

China has developed the world’s second longest freeway system, but it is largely inaccessible to foreign drivers because China has not ratified the international drivers license treaty. When and if they do, anticipate a rental car tour covering thousands of miles of Chinese intercity freeway.

“CITIES” IN CHINA

Analysts are often confused by the “city” (“shi” in Chinese) terminology used in China. All of the Suzhou urban area is contained within the city or municipality of Suzhou. Similarly, most (if not all) Chinese urban areas are contained within a single city. While Chinese “cities” are municipalities, they are far different from municipalities in the western world, by virtue of their geographical size and vast rural territories. A better rendering of the Chinese word “shi” would be region.

These cities or regions routinely include large areas of agricultural land, which keeps their density relatively low and leads publishers and analysts to report density data that is so low that it belies a complete misunderstanding of urban geography. For example, the largest municipality in the world is Chongqing, which has more than 30,000,000 people. Its land area is more than 30,000 square miles (more than 80,000 square kilometers) --- nearly as large as Austria or the state of Indiana. The urban area of Chongqing, however has a far more modest population of 4,000,000

http://www.rentalcartours.net
http://www.demographia.com
http://www.publicpurpose.com

Nanjing: Intermittent Capital

Full Article + 354 Photos


LOCATION

Nanjing (formerly called “Nanking” in western parlance) is the capital of and largest urban area in Jiansu Province. The Nanjing urban area straddles the Yangtze River (Chiang Jiang) , however nearly all of the urban area is on the south or east bank of, which curves from north to west at Nanjing (Slides 1-4).

Like Nanjing, the province straddles the Yangtze River and the Yangtze River Delta for all but the last few miles toward its mouth. Like the province of Jiangsu, Shanghai also straddles the Yangtze River. Nanjing is 190 miles (300 kilometers) west of Shanghai, 750 miles (1,400 kilometers) south of Beijing, 700 miles (1,100 kilometers north of the Pearl River Delta (Guangzhou and Hong Kong) and 300 miles (500 kilometers) east of Wuhan.

GENERAL DESCRIPTION

Nanjing means “south capital” and the city served as China’s capital during much of the republican period (1912 to 1949) and under some historical dynasties. The urban area is located on relatively flat land, though there are hill and small mountains in the area, including the Purple Mountain (Zhong Shan), which is just to the east of Nanjing’s core. Urbanization now surrounds Purple Mountain, which rises more than 1,100 feet (350 meters) above the urban area.

The Nanjing urban area has nearly 3.2 million people and is expected to increase to 4.0 million by 2025. The urban area is one of China’s least dense, covering 330 square miles (855 square kilometers), for a population density of 9,600 per square mile (3,700 per square kilometer). Overall, Nanjing is nearly as sparsely populated as a Western European urban area, principally because of the new, expansive residential and commercial development that has occurred in recent decades.

Even more than other urban areas in China, densities are highly variable in Nanjing. Core districts (qus) are somewhat less dense than in some other large urban areas. The most dense is Gulou Qu, at more than 65,000 per square mile (25,000 per square mile). This compares to nearly 110,000 per square mile (40,000 per square kilometer) in Shanghai, 85,000 per square mile (33,000 per square kilometer) in Shenyang and 80,000 per square mile in Beijing (30,000 per square kilometer. However, it is in the fringe areas that Nanjing reveals its less dense character. Large sections outside the urban area of 30 years ago are very low density, with large condominium projects and industrial estates that are widely spread.

TRAVELING TO NANJING

Airport access to is by Nanjing Lukou International Airport, which is located approximately 20 miles (35 kilometers) southeast of the core. The new CRH fast train from Shanghai station takes slightly more than two hours. Nanjing is also connected to the rest of the nation by the modern “7918” expressway system, which radiates in six directions from Nanjing’s freeway ring road. Six toll expressways connect Nanjing to Shanghai and Suzhou to the east, Wuhan and Hefei to the west, Beijing to the north, Hangzhou to the southeast, Nantong to the east and Wuhu to the south.

By 2006, the 7918 expressway system had reached 27,000 miles by the end of 2006 (45,000 kilometers) and will eventually exceed the United States interstate highway system in length.

THE URBAN FORM

Old Nanjing is surrounded by what is reportedly the longest city wall still standing in the world. The wall is approximately 20 miles (32 kilometers) long and encloses approximately 17 square miles (44 square kilometers). The wall was completed in the 15th century, at which time the population (inside the wall) was approximately 500,000. There is a moat to the outside of the wall, except where Xianwu Lake provides the moat.

The Core: Unlike some river urban areas, the core of Nanjing is not on the river. Nanjing’s core is located 3 miles (5 kilometers) east of the Yangtze and to the southwest of Xianwu Lake (Slides 5-170). The core of Nanjing is enclosed by the city wall. The main intersection in the central business district is Xinjieko. The tallest skyscrapers tend to be in the core, somewhat more in a concentrated pattern than is usual for a Chinese urban area. There are a number of buildings of 45 to 55 stories in the core. Currently, the tallest building is the New Century Plaza Tower (Slides 32 & 84), at 52 floors and 840 feet (255 meters). This building is just to the east of Xinjieko and sits across a central plaza from the Presidential Palace. There is a Carrefour hypermarket under the park.

Somewhat north of Xinjieko, there is an 89 story tower (1,500 feet and 460 meters) under construction, the Nanjing Greenland Financial Complex (Slides 63, 68, 69, 76, 77, 127), which will be the tallest in the urban area. It will also exceed the height of America’s tallest building, the Sears Tower in Chicago.

Like virtually all large Chinese urban areas, substantial office building development has occurred in recent decades, at the same time that there are many residential buildings. These include new condominium towers as well as the seemingly standard six to nine story bay-windowed apartment buildings that date back at least to the 1970s (see “Housing,” below). There are also a number of enclosed shopping centers.

Hunan Road is a popular restaurant area, located to the north of the principal concentration of office buildings (Slides 56, 59-62).

There are a number of public buildings built during the years that Nanjing was the national capital, under the Nationalist republic. The most significant is the Presidential Palace. In addition, the Zhou Enlai Museum is located near the Presidential Palace (Slide 80). Zhou Enlai was China’s premier from 1949 to 1976 and second in command to Mao Zedong. The museum includes two of Zhou’s cars, including a 1941 Buick and a Chrysler (Slides 81, 82). It is said that Zhou Enlai’s favor for Buicks led to that General Motors brand being the first and principal one manufactured in China.

Most of the streets of the core are lined with trees, which appear to be maple, from the shape of their leaves. Local people refer to them as “French trees,” however they look just like the maples that dominate so much of the middle of the United States and Canada (Slides 9, 10, 12 and others).

The railway station is located outside the city wall, across Xianwu Lake to the northeast of the core (Slide 107).

Core: Nanjing Massacre International Safety Zone: Nanjing was the site of the “Rape of Nanking,” which occurred when the Japanese army invaded the city in December of 1937 and continued until February of 1938. This is described in a The Rape of Nanking: The Forgotten Holocaust of World War II, by Iris Chang. She reports that “more than 300,000 Chinese civilians and soldiers were systematically raped, tortured and murdered.” It is estimated that approximately one-half of the population left in the city at the invasion died. The events are also chronicled in a 2007 movie, Nanking.

During this time, perhaps as many as 300,000 people were saved in what was called the “International Safety Zone,” which was established by resident westerners, including missionaries and businessmen. The zone’s southeast corner was at the city’s present core, Xinjieko and covered 2.15 square miles (Slides 38-62). The leader was a German, John Rabe, who was also a member of the National Socialist (Nazi) Party. Rabe and the others persuaded the Japanese to respect the zone, though there were reportedly frequent unauthorized incursions that resulted in rape, death and abduction. Virtually all of the area has since been redeveloped and looks no different from the rest of the core of Nanjing. Hunan Road is in the International Safety Zone.

There is a memorial hall dedicated to the Nanjing Massacre, located outside the wall, in the southern area (outside of the International Safety Zone).

North of the River and the Yangtze Bridge: Nanjing has one of the oldest bridges over the Yangtze River, Nanjing Yangtze Bridge Number 1. This bridge, with approaches is more than 4 miles (7 kilometers) long. The top deck has four road traffic lanes and has bus stops just to the outside of the statues that mark the river bank at each end of the span. The lower deck has two tracks for trains (Slides 171-176, 187-207).

Like Yangtze Bridge Number 1 in Wuhan, Nanjing Bridge Number 1 has good pedestrian access and is recommended for walking. Chairman Mao Zedong was pleased to swim across the Yangtze at Wuhan. I was sufficiently pleased to walk across the bridge there and was determined to again cross the Yangtze on foot in Nanjing. There are now other crossings of the Yangtze in Nanjing, but they are freeways and not pedestrian friendly.

The bridge leads to the north and west bank portions of the urban area, which are developing rapidly. This area includes substantial commercial and industrial activity, many large condominium developments and some single family (villa) housing (Slides 177-185, 208). It is also evident that former agricultural and rural housing uses are being displaced by urbanization (Slides 183-184)

Southern Area: There is considerable older development to the south of the city wall. But most of the southern area development is relatively new. Metro line 1, the only line open at this point, serves the southern area, and ends at the Olympic Stadium, which is one of a number of such facilities built around China for the 2008 Olympics.

The area closer to the city wall contains a large number of new high-rise condominium developments, each with multiple buildings. This type of development continues well to the south, where becomes much more sparse. There are also a large number of manufacturing facilities. It is in this area that the physical expanse of Nanjing’s urbanization is most obvious. Overall, the density of population and development in this area is far below that of the rest of the urban area.

One new villa development is named “Rotorua Town,” after the New Zealand volcanic resort town.

Eastern Area: The eastern area is a mixture of older and newer condominium developments. Generally the newer developments do not appear to be as desirable as in the southern area. Much of the eastern area is also in the process of being converted from rural living to urbanization (Slides 297-302). The eastern area also has a number of commercial developments that resemble the strip malls of western nations.

Western Area: The western area is to the west of the city wall and extends to the east bank of the Yangtze River. This area has many high quality high rise condominium developments. There are also a number of the standardized, older apartment buildings (see “Housing,” below), with industrial activities toward the river.

Northern Area: The northern area (east and south of the Yangtze River) has virtually all types of residential land uses. More significantly, the northern area is home to the urban area’s heaviest industries.

Small Businesses: As is the case in virtually all Chinese urban areas, many major streets are lined by small businesses (Slides 52, 213, 214, 316)

Industry: Nanjing has a number of large industrial parks, generally with exceptionally wide streets, often 8 lanes (Slides 226, 229, 276, 295).

Housing: China has been successful in housing its large urban population, which includes the registered population --- people with the right to live in a particular urban area --- and the unregistered, or floating population. The unregistered population is legally permitted to live in the urban area only temporarily, but the reality is that they have become a permanent fixture, staffing the many growing businesses.

Classic Apartment Housing: In Nanjing, as in other Chinese urban areas, there are many “classic” multi-unit residential buildings (Slides Below), located throughout the older parts of the urban area. These were originally built by the government and made available, generally as rentals to households. We are told that many of these units have been sold. The “classic” buildings are up to ten floors. Most of the units have bay windows and are fairly attractive given that they were built as public or social housing and are aging. It is unclear when these were built. They appear to date at least to the late 1970s and perhaps even before. Much of the older parts of Chinese urban areas are covered by these “classic” buildings, which are spaced close together within urban blocks.

Classic Apartment Housing Slides: 45, 49, 51, 53, 64, 86-89, 103-105, 214

Newer Condominium Developments: As throughout China, an increasing number of Nanjing households are moving into the newer, privately developed condominiums, most of which are at least 20 floors and often exceed 30 floors. A large number of high-rise residential buildings are under construction. These buildings are being developed in virtually every part of the urban area and often a number of near-duplicate buildings constitute a development (Slides ###).

Newer Condominium Development Slides: 6, 74, 95, 98, 114, 177-178, 181-182, 184-185, 210-212, 215-220, 223, 225, 227, 228, 230, 232-242, 233-252, 257-257, 283, 287-288, 291-292, 304-309, 311, 315, 325-327, 331-333

Older Housing: Toward the south end of the core, near the south wall, there is an area of older, perhaps sub-standard housing that is typical of the prerevolutionary era (Slides 151-169). The houses tend to be one or two floors and attached. The streets are far too small for motor vehicles. However, the area is clean and safe (as is all of urban China). There is also an area of similar housing near the Presidential Palace (Slides 91-92)

The Absence of Shanty Towns: In all of our travels in China, which now cover more than 15 urban areas, virtually no “shanty towns” nor informal housing has been seen. Even the sub-standard housing area near the south gate (above) is by no means a shanty town. The lack of “shanty towns” is unusual for a developing nation. Nations that are rated as much more affluent, such as Mexico and Brazil have significant shanty towns, which cannot be missed in traveling through the urban areas. Moreover, China has every bit as big an urban housing challenge, since the strong movement of people from the rural areas to the urban areas continues. China will add more urban residents in the next quarter century than the population of the United States (more than 360 million).

Villas: Single family (villa) housing is located in developments in every sector of the urban area. Generally, these developments are highly secured and it is generally not possible to obtain photographs except from the outside or satellite photographs (Slides 208, 265, 268, 277, 354).

TRANSPORT

Nanjing is well served by high-quality roads. The urban area has very wide streets, which is typical of China. There is a ring road, built to freeway standards. The ring road is a toll facility and built to freeway standards. Most public transport ridership in Nanjing is by bus. Like many Chinese urban areas, Nanjing is expanding its Metro.

THE YANGTZE DELTA

Nanjing is one of the principal urban areas on the Yangtze River Delta, which includes Shanghai, Hangzhou, Wuxi, Suzhou, Ningbo and a number of smaller urban areas. The Yangtze Delta is one of China’s two “mega-regions,” --- areas of adjacent large metropolitan areas. The other is the Pearl River Delta, with a somewhat smaller population but much higher population density (see Rental Car Tour: Pearl River Delta Overflight).

MAPS AND BOOKS IN CHINA

In Taiyuan and most Chinese urban areas, the largest and most comprehensive bookstores are a part of the Xinhua Bookstore chain, which is owned by the government. Xinhua bookstores generally have the best assortment of local and regional maps and include a small selection of English language books. Any one serious about touring China or Chinese urban areas will need good, detailed maps and they are generally available only in Chinese. However, there is no difficulty in developing a touring route to see an urban area using a Chinese map.

EATING IN CHINA

The local food is superb. My rule in China is to never frequent a restaurant that takes credit cards. That way, there is a good chance of getting genuine local food. The experience is a happy one, though language difficulties make it virtually impossible to enunciate any recommendations. There are, along all business streets in the urban areas of China, a plethora of good local restaurants. Ordering can be difficult, since few such establishments have menus in English (though rather more than have Mandarin menus in Western Europe or the United States). Moreover, given the humble status of these restaurants --- low prices, good food, they will not be found in any of the tour guides.

It is recommended, however, that tap water be avoided. The hotels provide bottled water. Generally, bottled water should be relied on in all but the most affluent nations. This is my unfortunate advice after having contracted “Montezuma’s Revenge” on every continent but Australia and Antarctica.

TRAVELING IN CHINA

China has one of the world’s most advanced air transport systems and has built many new airports. The new Beijing Terminal 3 and the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport are among the most impressive in the world. Other large and medium sized urban areas also have new airport terminals, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi’an, Shenyang, Shenzhen, Taiyuan and a new terminal is under construction at Hongqiao International Airport in Shanghai.

Passenger rail is a very inexpensive and comfortable way to travel, especially over shorter distances. China has developed the fastest intercity train in the world, which operates between Tianjin and Beijing. It reaches nearly 220 miles per hour (350 kilometers per hour). Rail travel is very inexpensive. For example, second class travel between Hangzhou and Shanghai has an approximately cost of $15.

China has developed the world’s second longest freeway system, but it is largely inaccessible to foreign drivers because China has not ratified the international driver’s license treaty. When and if they do, anticipate a rental car tour covering thousands of miles of Chinese intercity freeway.

“CITIES” IN CHINA

Analysts are often confused by the “city” (“shi” or 市 in Chinese) terminology used in China. Most (if not all) Chinese urban areas are contained within a single city (“shi”). While Chinese “cities” are municipalities, they are far different from municipalities in the western world, by virtue of their geographical size and vast rural territories. A better rendering of the Chinese word “shi” would be region.

Within the municipality or shi is the “shixiaqu” (市辖区), which encompasses the urban districts (referred to as “qu”). Much of some urban districts is actually rural, especially those on the periphery of the urban area.

These cities or regions routinely include large areas of agricultural land, which keeps their density relatively low and leads publishers and analysts to report density data that is so low that it belies a complete misunderstanding of urban geography. For example, the largest municipality in the world is Chongqing, which has more than 30,000,000 people. Its land area is more than 30,000 square miles (more than 80,000 square kilometers) --- nearly as large as Austria or the state of Indiana. The urban area of Chongqing, however has a far more modest population of 3,000,000

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Taiyuan: Rust Belt Recovery

Full Article & 192 Slides

LOCATION

Taiyuan (pronounced TY-U-ANN) is approximately 250 miles (400 kilometers) southeast of Beijing, slightly less than one-half the way to Xi’an. Taiyuan is the capital of Shanxi Province (SHAN = mountains, XI= west). Taiyan is south of Shanxi’s other large urban area, Datong, which is 150 miles (205 kilometers) away. The urban area is in a valley with mountains on the east, west and north sides. The urban area rises from the Fen River, which flows north to south through the middle of the valley and empties into the Huang He (Yellow River or Huang Ho). Taiyuan is located in China’s arid north, which is illustrated by the barrenness of the nearby mountains.


GENERAL DESCRIPTION

Taiyuan is a historic coal mining, steel producing and industrial urban area. The Taiyuan urban area has a population of 2,730,000 (2007 estimated). The urban area covers 120 square miles (310 square kilometers). The population density is 22,800 per square mile (8,800 per square kilometer). Taiyuan is comparatively dense, at about 30 percent greater than the average of urban areas in China over 500,000 (17,000 per square mile or 6,800 per square kilometer). Taiyuan is one-third as dense as world leader Hong Kong and one-third less dense than Manila. On the other hand, the Taiyuan urban area is 2.5 times as dense as the Paris urban area, 3.3 times as dense as the Los Angeles urban area, 4.3 times as dense as the Sydney urban area and 6.7 times as dense as the Portland urban area (Chart).



Like Shenyang and Fushun, Taiyuan has been the home of some of China’s largest heavy industries. As a result, as reforms have reduced the size of the state sector and heavy manufacturing has declined, Taiyuan has suffered economic downturns and can be considered a part of China’s “Rust Belt.” However, there is plenty of evidence of economic vibrancy in Taiyuan.

GETTING TO TAIYUAN

There is convenient airline access to Taiyuan from all over China. Taiyuan Wusu Airport is located less than 10 miles from the historic core (less than 16 kilometers). It takes less than one-hour to fly to Beijing.

Taiyuan is also served by China’s “7918” toll expressway system. Currently, interstate or motorway standard roads connect Taiyuan to the rest of the nation in four directions. Bus and rail service is also available. The high speed rail link to Taiyuan from Beijing will be completed early in the next decade, with travel times of less than three hours.

THE URBAN FORM

Perhaps one-third of the Taiyaun urban area is located on the east side of the Fen River. Much of the urban area has a grid street system, with the main east-west street being Yingze Xidajie. Yingze Xidajie begins in the east at the Taiyuan railway station and crosses most of the urban area, ending at western portion of the Ring Expressway. At least five bridges cross the Fen the river in the central area. The main north-south street on the west side is Heping Bailu.

The Historic Core: The main commercial center is located to the west and south of the railway station on the east side of the river. It is appropriate to label this the “historic” core, since core activities, such as major shopping centers and office buildings are increasingly found throughout Chinese urban areas, including Taiyuan. Taiyuan boasts a number of high rise office towers, the tallest being more than 40 floors. As is typical of Chinese urban areas, however, office buildings are widely spread. Most of the office towers are within two miles (three kilometers) of the railway station, are not concentrated, as would be the case in a North American or Australian urban area. The core contains many shops and residential buildings.

East Side: South of the core, the east side becomes predominantly residential. There are office buildings, but they are very sparsely spaced and there are many smaller shops. The east side also includes many new high-rise residential buildings. Even to a greater extent that offices, the new high rise residential buildings are spread throughout the urban area. Interspersed between the offices, residential towers and shopping facilities are the “classic” multi-unit residential buildings, similar to what is seen throughout China (see “Housing,” below). The south side is also home to Taiyuan’s “automobile row,” a concentration of new automobile dealerships (Slides 89-91)

The West Side: The west side is similar to the east side, except that it does not contain many office towers. There are many dispersed high-rise residential towers and many shopping facilities. Some of the newest residential towers are located on Yingze Xidajie, near the west end of the urban area, near the ring road, more than 6 miles (10 kilometers) from the railway station (Slides 131-133).

The South: Toward the south, Taiyuan is not as prosperous. Much of the area is given to industry, including a major power plant on the southwest side. There are fewer high-rise residential towers, however, toward the airport, on the southeast side, there are some new towers. The south side contains the kind of less attractive uses that must attend to every urban area, such as repair shops, junk yards, trucking facilities, etc.

The Northeast Side: Toward the north, principally on the east side, there is also considerable industry, coal fired power plant and a large steel mill (owned by Taiyuan Iron and Steel Corporation, the largest corporation in Shanxi and it is reported will become the largest stainless steel producer in the world). Housing in this part of the urban area is more modest and there are few high-rise residential towers. Like the south side, the north side has some of the typical but necessary unattractive urban uses.

Shopping: Shopping is also very dispersed, which is a necessity since a low automobile ownership share requires people to shop relatively close to home, by walking, bicycle or motorcycle. Modern shopping centers are located throughout most of the urban area. Like other Chinese urban areas, there are many convenience stores and some are open 24 hours (Slides 46 & 57). Indeed, there are “7-11” stores in China. Thus convenience shopping opportunities in China are similar to the United States. However, in the United States the “7-11” and other similar stores have largely been replaced by convenience stores at petrol stations.

Housing: China has been successful in housing its large urban population, which includes the registered population --- people with the right to live in a particular urban area --- and the unregistered, or floating population. The unregistered population is legally permitted to live in the urban area only temporarily, but the reality is that they have become a permanent fixture, staffing the many growing businesses.

In Taiyuan, as in other Chinese urban areas, there are many “classic” multi-unit residential buildings (Slides 189-192) in the older areas. These were originally built by the government and made available, generally as rentals to households. We are told that many of these units have been sold. The “classic” buildings are up to ten floors, though in medium sized urban areas, like Taiyuan, they tend to be six or fewer floors. Most of the units have bay windows and are fairly attractive given that they were built as public or social housing and are aging. It is unclear when these were built. They appear to date at least to the late 1970s and perhaps even before. Much of the older parts of Chinese urban areas are covered by these “classic” buildings, which are spaced close together within urban blocks (Slide 192, additional Slides are noted in the footnote ).

As throughout China, an increasing number of Taiyuan households are moving into the newer, privately developed condominiums, most of which are at least 20 floors and some exceed 30 floors. A large number of high-rise residential buildings are under construction. These buildings are being developed in virtually every part of the urban area and often a number of near-duplicate buildings constitute a development (Multiple Slides, see footnote ). People stand at intersections handing out flyers to passersby, whether in cars or on foot, advertising new residential buildings, complete with floor plans and sale prices. The main Xinhua Bookstore, in the core, has a large billboard advertising a new condominium development (Slide 50).

In all of our travels in China, which now cover more than 15 urban areas, virtually no “shanty towns” nor informal housing has been seen. This is unusual for a nation of China’s economic status. Nations that are rated as much more affluent, such as Mexico and Brazil have significant shanty towns, which cannot be missed in traveling through the urban areas. Moreover, China has every bit as big an urban housing challenge, since the strong movement of people from the rural areas to the urban areas continues. China will add more urban residents in the next quarter century than the population of the United States (more than 360 million).

Small Businesses: As is the case in virtually all Chinese urban areas, many major streets are lined by small businesses (Slides 35, 42, 61, 75, 94, 112 & 159)


TRANSPORT

Taiyuan has a public transport system that relies on buses and trolleybuses. As in other Chinese urban areas, there is a growing volume of car and motorcycle traffic. There is a freeway ring road and some limited access road within the urban area. The urban area is generally served by a grid of wide streets.

MAPS AND BOOKS IN CHINA

In Taiyuan and most Chinese urban areas, the largest and most comprehensive bookstores are a part of the Xinhua Bookstore chain, which is owned by the government. Xinhua bookstores generally have the best assortment of local and regional maps and include a small selection of English language books. Any one serious about touring China or Chinese urban areas will need good, detailed maps and they are generally available only in Chinese. However, there is no difficulty in developing a touring route to see an urban area using a Chinese map.

EATING IN CHINA

The local food is superb. My rule in China is to never frequent a restaurant that takes credit cards. That way, there is a good chance of getting genuine local food. The experience is a happy one, though language difficulties make it virtually impossible to enunciate any recommendations. There are, along all business streets in the urban areas of China, a plethora of good local restaurants. Ordering can be difficult, since few such establishments have menus in English (though rather more than have Mandarin menus in Western Europe or the United States). Moreover, given the humble status of these restaurants --- low prices, good food, they will not be found in any of the tour guides.

It is recommended, however, that tap water be avoided. The hotels provide bottled water. Generally, bottled water should be relied on in all but the most affluent nations. This is my unfortunate advice after having contracted Montezuma’s revenge on every continent but Australia and Antarctica.

TRAVELING IN CHINA

China has one of the world’s most advanced air transport systems and has built many new airports. The new Beijing Terminal 3 and the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport are among the most impressive in the world. Other large and medium sized urban areas also have new airport terminals, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, Xi’an, Shenyang, Shenzhen, Taiyuan and a new terminal is under construction at Hongqiao International Airport in Shanghai.

Passenger rail is a very inexpensive and comfortable way to travel, especially over shorter distances. China has developed the fastest intercity train in the world, which operates between Tianjin and Beijing. It reaches nearly 220 miles per hour (350 kilometers per hour). Rail travel is very inexpensive. For example, second class travel between Hangzhou and Shanghai has an approximately cost of $15.

China has developed the world’s second longest freeway system, but it is largely inaccessible to foreign drivers because China has not ratified the international drivers license treaty. When and if they do, anticipate a rental car tour covering thousands of miles of Chinese intercity freeway.

“CITIES” IN CHINA

Analysts are often confused by the “city” (“shi” in Chinese) terminology used in China. All of the Suzhou urban area is contained within the city or municipality of Suzhou. Similarly, most (if not all) Chinese urban areas are contained within a single city. While Chinese “cities” are municipalities, they are far different from municipalities in the western world, by virtue of their geographical size and vast rural territories. A better rendering of the Chinese word “shi” would be region.

These cities or regions routinely include large areas of agricultural land, which keeps their density relatively low and leads publishers and analysts to report density data that is so low that it belies a complete misunderstanding of urban geography. For example, the largest municipality in the world is Chongqing, which has more than 30,000,000 people. Its land area is more than 30,000 square miles (more than 80,000 square kilometers) --- nearly as large as Austria or the state of Indiana. The urban area of Chongqing, however has a far more modest population of 4,000,000

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